"I know what I'm doing. After all, I did my homework." That doesn't mean you're an expert. The average high school student can do their homework too, but I wouldn't want them building nuclear reactors on that knowledge. You, as a race track freshman, shouldn't be building Pick 6 part wheels either.
I got the part of my body normally used for sitting handed to me last weekend. I got cocky with exotic bets. In fact, over the last few trips to the track I got really cocky. Oh yeah, the day after Christmas I came home with nearly $200 over my initial bets and missed the Pick 6 by one, which paid handsomely. There's an old saying "God looks after fools and little children." Since I am well out of childhood, guess which one I am. (Something to remember: God has a lot of fools to look after so he can't keep an eye on you all the time.)
One foolish thing that happened was that I got trapped in the love of one horse who has been handing me money each time he put a hoof on the turf. What happened this time? He didn't put a hoof on the turf. He was tiptoeing through that fluff called synthetic. He tried gamely, but lost all form in the last heartbreaking furlong, coming in dead last. Lesson: If a horse shows winning form on one surface, reconsider betting if they suddenly switch surfaces. I knew this. I also read the pros' comments on this. I bet using my heart instead of my head hoping the horse would prove everyone wrong and run like a champion. The Usual Q.T. is a great horse. He was named the California Three Year Old Male Champion by the members of the California Thoroughbred Breeders Association, but he's still just a horse. He's not a god. He has his faults and preferences just like the rest of us. He tried on the synthetic surface twice and just didn't like it.
Mistake number three was participating in a handicapping contest. What the hell was I thinking? First, I did it in a rushed manner and didn't really take the time to consider my choices wisely. Second, I was going up against guys who do this all the time. So what if it was a cheap game, I was way out of my league and way over budget with the $30 voucher and the $10 entry fee. Until you are picking winners like a pro, stay away from these sucker bets.
I have learned a lesson. Bet wisely and cooly. Bet within my abilities. Handicapping is not unlike a video game: you don't have a reset button. I'm not ready for expensive exotic bets or wild speculations. I'm supposed to be keeping it cheap and fun here.
Ok, breathe. My next set of races are coming up. Time to start laying my plan.
I like my straight show bets. I generally come home with my money plus a little more. Last time I bet $XX and came home with $XX on the show bets. Where I made my mistake was playing boxed exactas, the Pick 3 and Pick 6.
Here was my logic on the two Pick 3s: The day after Christmas I had a Pick 6 that was one away from all six. Had I layed down a pair of back up Pick 3s I would've come home with the pay from the Pick 3 and the pay from 5 of 6 from the Pick 6. Sweet. I would've come home with hundreds. This time I came home with my butt in my hand. I had only two horses actually come in. One on one Pick 3 and the other on the other Pick 3. I was no where near sniffing range of the Pick 6. Never let your next race day plan get screwed up by the Shoulda Sickness of the last race day. Each day is a new day.
Not that I bet a huge amount of money on any one of those 3 bets. I bet $2 on one Pick 3, $X on the other and $X on the Pick 6. (This is the second twenty which I will discuss on a later date. Right now we are discussing getting in over our heads.) For now I will limit my exotic bets to the ten cent superfecta and the Pick All which I've had better luck at, cheaper. (What are those two bets? We'll discuss those on a later date too.)
As for the exactas, unless you are willing to spend more than they are really worth, they are not going to win all that often. Again, it was a bad case of Fools and Little Children the two that I did have come in for me recently.
Exotics are fun and their pay for their price can make them seem justifyable, but they are a lot of hard work figuring out the future. The only one I see as a maybe is the Ten Cent Superfecta and the cheap fun of the Pick All, but we'll discuss that later. Today it's all about keeping your head on your shoulders no matter what. It's about staying within the set budget and within player abilities. Today I wanted to give an example of what cocky pays.
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